Post by kevinfelixlee on May 4, 2011 22:25:39 GMT -5
He's relatively young, he's handsome, he's vigorous, he's rich, he's a proven vote-getter, he's much admired, he's Mormon, he's scandal-free, and he's performed ably in both the private sector and the public sector. He is Mitt Romney. He is also Jon Huntsman.
The difference between the two men is that Mr. Romney ran for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination runescape gold and never stopped running. He has a national fund-raising network. He has national name recognition. He enjoys significant (and national) political support. He's been vetted by the press. As a result, Mr. Romney is the second front-runner (behind former Governor Mike Huckabee) for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination.
So what makes former US Ambassador to China (and former Utah Governor) Jon Huntsman think that he can jump the line and become the GOP's presidential nominee in 2012? The answer has to be that Amb. Huntsman thinks that (1) Mitt Romney has a glass jaw, that (2) he (Huntsman) can smash it, and that (3) if he does, he will be the nominee. It's not the dumbest idea out there. (The dumbest idea would be Donald Trump's "candidacy" for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination).
How would it work? As we've said before, the GOP nominates one of three candidate types: (1) an establishment Republican, (2) a socially conservative Republican, or (3) a maverick Republican. Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, George H.W. Bush and Robert Dole were all "establishment" Republicans. Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush were hybrid "establishment/social conservative" Republicans. John McCain was a "maverick" Republican. All of these GOP nominees worked from their political base rs gold and expanded outward to gather decisive support.
Mr. Huntsman strategy is to emerge as the "maverick" Republican in the race. He has hired the core players from the McCain campaign team to help him craft this appeal. He plans to skip Iowa (as McCain did) and run right at Romney in New Hampshire. If he wins there, Romney is finished and suddenly Jon Huntsman isn't just the maverick Republican candidate, he's the GOP establishment candidate as well. That's not enough to assure that he will win the GOP nomination (social conservatives make up a majority of GOP primary voters and caucus attenders), but it puts him head-to-head runescape money with Huckabee (or whomever emerges as the social conservative candidate). That's a winnable fight.
The data suggest that beating Mitt Romney in New Hampshire is difficult at best. But there's long been a sense in GOP circles that Romney runescape items really does have a glass jaw, that he has created (and re-created) so many political personas that he is, on some level, unrecognizable. This isn't necessarily fair or true, but it's in the back of GOP voters' minds. If Romney doesn't put this "perception issue" to bed in the next 9 months, he will have a glass jaw going into New Hampshire. And the McCain consultants know, better than most, exactly where to hit it.
So, the answer to the headline question is: Huntsman has a shot. And he's ambitious and ruthless (and rich) enough to make it a good one.